It’s May and spring is in full bloom. Your snow boots are boxed away, baseball is back, summer sequels are preparing to invade your local multiplex, and the executives at your favorite television network are about to cancel one of your favorite television shows. Fans of Brothers & Sisters, Human Target, V, Chicago Code, Lie to Me, and other low-rated shows on the cusp of cancellation fret about the future of these programs because they are nearly guaranteed to be shuffled out the door for the limitless potential of the new shows being presented at network upfronts two weeks from today. Many of these low rated shows have a passionate following, so why would networks cancel shows with a vocal fanbase? The answer is simple: low Nielsen ratings.
Nielsen ratings are the engine that drives network revenue as shows with higher ratings command higher advertising rates. But are these ratings truly reflective of who's watching television in America? In a country of 311 million people and 115.9 million television households, the future of your favorite shows is determined by only 50,000 households. That means one out of every 2,318 households is responsible for what is cancelled and renewed, and unless you are part of the 0.04% of television households in America with a Nielsen box then there's nearly nothing you can do to have a direct impact on whether your favorite program stays or goes.
Fortunately, the recent emergence of entertainment check-in networks such as Get Glue, Miso, Philo, Relay, and Tunerfish may finally offer a genuine alternative to the Nielsen monopoly. Using check-ins to measure and track viewership offers three advantages:
- Anyone with a computer or mobile device may participate
- Check-in networks offer deeper demographic and psychographic data
- The sites measure activity on second screens and streaming services
Currently Nielsen households are preselected based on certain demographic qualifiers with the sample limited to around 50,000 households. These households must register or check-in to every show they watch with a "people meter" set top box connected to their television. Entertainment check-in networks operate in a similar fashion as users check-in to shows they watch in real-time or DVR via computers and mobile devices, and these networks are exploding in 2011. Get Glue recently announced it has over one million users, slightly more than Nielsen’s 50,000 households, and currently boasts 10 check-ins per second during primetime television. Check-in networks are available for free to anyone with a computer, iOS, Android, Blackberry or other mobile device, making the barrier to entry nearly non-existent. Big media has taken notice of the potential in this space; Comcast owns Tunerfish, CBS Interactive owns Relay and just last week the Shazam for television's IntoNow was acquired by Yahoo! for upwards of $30 million after launching only 12 weeks ago.
One of the greatest potential benefits of entertainment check-in networks is the enormous amount of demographic and psychographic data generated by each check-in. Not only can television networks see who is checking-in to what shows, they can data mine these user profiles and ascertain what these users' interests and activities are. Networks can see what other shows and networks people watch, what movies they like, who their favorite actors are, what books they've read and video games they've played. They can use this data to build more accurate audience profiles which in turn will inform and guide programming both on-air and in development. The trade-off for users is that they will need to provide coveted and detailed demographic information that they are not used to providing (marital status, income level, number of children, etc.), but people are willing to provide this information if it means they’ll have a voice on the fate of their favorite programs.
Implementing check-ins as a measurement method also solves the growing problem of measuring viewing on second screens and streaming services. Hours spent watching content on second screens has increased dramatically with the proliferation of iPads, iPhones and other mobile devices capable of downloading and streaming content. Currently Nielsen has no reliable method to measure activity on these devices. Check-in networks are available on nearly every mobile operating system and allow users to check-in to content no matter where they are watching it. As these services grow in popularity, expect one or two of them to become dominant players in the space and evolve into platforms that can be integrated into cable boxes, blu-ray players, TiVos, and other technology fighting to be the hub of your digital living room. Once this happens users will have the ability to check-in to a program from their remote control using an action as similar to and as simple as changing the channel. Streaming services like Netflix and Hulu Plus will also integrate these platforms, accounting for and measuring all streaming content. In the future, simply starting a stream of Spartacus: Blood and Sand or Mad Men will automatically activate a check-in, no matter where in the world you are.
Nielsen ratings are the primary factor a network considers when deciding whether to cancel or renew a show. Other factors such as DVD sales, international sales, and purchased downloads are also taken into consideration, but are still considered ancillary revenue streams. As the marketplace for content evolves and distribution continues to shift to on-demand internet delivery, ratings measurement needs to evolve as well and entertainment check-in networks are primed to take the reins.